2012 is The Year of the Electric Car. There are at least 7 models coming out, and those are all 100% electric cars. It is a very exciting time.
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By Andrew E. Dow October 21, 2011
I have not made a decision to purchase yet. The Leaf gave a test drive that was better than I expected, but it didn’t impress me to the point of spending $44k plus options plus taxes on it.
2012 is The Year of the Electric Car. There are at least 7 models coming out, and those are all 100% electric cars. It is a very exciting time.
There will be a myriad of hybrids coming out too that will get lots of (false) marketing hype like the Chev Volt. A 45km range will not work for most individuals and the few that it does work for will end up with a big financial surprise when they find out that the E10 (or worse, E15) gas that has been sitting in their tank and gas lines for 2+months has now completely separated and corroded the lines as well as gummed up the pumps and injectors. None of the owners will remember to put in gas stabilizer or want to pay the $8 per can per tank of gas to put it in. When they get hit with a $3500 repair bill that isn’t covered by the warranty, they’ll be understandably upset. I know because as a boat owner, I’ve been putting fuel stabilizer in my 70gal boat gas tank for years for just that reason. Boats sit for long periods of time and all outboard engine manufactures warn against using any E10 gas and letting it sit for periods longer than 2 weeks as it starts the separation process. I’ll never buy a hybrid. It is a personal choice.
I’m waiting for the rest of the 100% EVs to mature over the next 6 months time. Spending $50k-$80k on a car is not something I take lightly. There are serious contenders like the RAV4, Smart, Focus and of course the current 100% electric car industry leader, Tesla Motors with their Model S. Yes, cars like the Model S will cost $60k-$80k but now we are talking about 210kph top speeds, 0-100kph in less than 5.6 seconds and a battery range of 300kms or 400kms or 500kms depending on which battery pack you purchase. Paying 50% more for a car that appears to be 2x-3x the vehicle, puts it in better perspective. Kinda helps that the car is a full size too, seats 7 people, has a 17” computer console, leather, is totally programmable, 20” rims etc etc.
Another thing most folks are not considering is the real world range of all 100% electric cars. Vehicle manufactures historically overstate (in some cases blatantly lie about) the range of gas cars, so of course they’ll do the same with 100% electric. It is very frustrating to get these figures, but the EPA is getting better at demanding more accurate numbers. Adding to this conundrum is the fact that no vehicle maker will openly admit about battery range degradation over the first 2-3yrs of the car. Initial tests seem to point towards figures of about 15% with some as high as 20%. Battery range drops off evenly in yrs 3 through 10, when it hits about 50%. So if I were to pay for a 100% electric car with a 120km range (I’m being VERY kind here) in real world conditions, that means I have just 60kms range in each direction. That does not account for many stops by a friend’s house or a pub. I’ll lose about 5% of that range, or 6kms, per year. If I make a mistake and buy a $50k car that has barely enough range when it is new, I’m going to be in big trouble in the 3rd year.
Keep in mind here, this is all “best case scenario”. What happens if I do stop at a pub on the way home and get hammered? I’d take a cab home of course. Big problem now. I have to take a cab back to my car and drive it home as I don’t have enough range to get to work from the pub and then back home again. I hope employers let people work from home. What happens if the power surges and knocks out my automated nightly charge? I don’t have enough range to get to work as I didn’t get the full nightly charge I need. What happens if I’m out late and don’t get home till 3am? Once again, I didn’t get my full nightly charge. Don’t quote the 480V charge times of 45mins either as NO ONE scrimping to buy a car is going to pay an electrician $10k to $15k to wire up the proper home charging circuit you need so you don’t burn your house down.
It all boils down to the fact that most folks don’t realize they need 250% of their daily range to account for the real world and battery degradation. I’m not sure the Leaf gives me that yet. Really smart people will use 350% or more. Why? Because if you want max life out of your (VERY expensive) battery you can’t continually drain the batteries (called Depth of Discharge or DOD) to more than 80% as this kills the long term life of them. The lower your DOD, the longer the batteries will last. If your DOD never falls below 20% (tough to do) your battery will last forever, much longer than the car ever will. Example: The little battery in your gas car right now can only take 3-5 DOD @ 100% before it is garbage. It will not reliably start your car. That assumes it isn’t an AGM battery either.
I’ll be purchasing a 100% electric vehicle because it is the best car on the road, and it just happens to be 100% electric. It will replace 100% of the functionality of my current car. It will have “additional” capacity on the range so I can live in the real world and make mistakes, because I’m far from perfect, so my car needs to be.
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